FIRE Sustainability Analyzer
Stress-test your FIRE plan with Monte Carlo simulations, historical backtesting, and withdrawal strategy comparison.
Portfolio Sustainability Score
What-If Analysis
Explore different scenarios by adjusting the sliders below
Lower rates are safer but require larger portfolios
Higher stock allocation = more growth potential but more volatility
Historical Stress Tests
How would your portfolio survive if you retired right before major market crashes?
Withdrawal Strategy Comparison
| Strategy | Success Rate | Avg Income | Income Stability | Best For |
|---|
Monte Carlo Simulation Results
1,000 simulated retirement scenarios based on historical market data
Risk Mitigation Recommendations
Tax-Efficient Withdrawal Order
Minimize taxes by withdrawing from accounts in the optimal order
Taxable Accounts
Brokerage accounts, savings, CDs
Traditional 401(k)/IRA
Pre-tax retirement accounts
Roth 401(k)/IRA
After-tax retirement accounts
Why This Order Matters
By withdrawing from taxable accounts first, you allow your tax-advantaged accounts more time to grow. Traditional accounts are used next during lower-income years when you may be in a lower tax bracket. Roth accounts are saved for last because every dollar grows and is withdrawn completely tax-free—the longer they compound, the more valuable they become.
Note: This is a general guideline. Your optimal strategy may vary based on your tax situation, RMD requirements, estate planning goals, and whether you expect to be in a higher or lower tax bracket in retirement. Consider consulting a tax professional for personalized advice.
Two portfolios can have the exact same average return over time, yet end up with dramatically different final values. The difference? When those returns occur matters enormously when you're withdrawing money.
Scenario A: Good Returns Early
Scenario B: Bad Returns Early
The Difference
Same average return. Different outcomes. The portfolio with bad returns early ends up with $0 less (0% less) than the one with good returns early.
Why This Happens
Withdrawals compound losses. When you withdraw during a down market, you sell more shares at lower prices.
Fewer shares to recover. With fewer shares remaining, even strong later returns can't fully recover.
Early years matter most. The first 5-10 years of retirement have outsized impact on portfolio longevity.
How to Protect Yourself
Plan Your Healthcare Bridge
Healthcare is the #1 concern for early retirees. Make sure you have a plan.